Bid/no-bid decision

Every proposal costs real hours: contractors report an average of 84 hours going into one proposal, and more for a large federal volume set. The bid/no-bid decision protects that time. It starts with gates that end a pursuit outright: a set-aside you do not qualify for, a mandatory license or clearance you lack, a due date you cannot meet. Only then does the team score the softer factors.

The usual factors are the probability of winning (pWin), strategic fit with your growth plan, your capability and available staff, the financial picture (value, margin, cash flow) and risk (terms, incumbency, scope you would have to subcontract). Most teams weight these, because a strong fit does not rescue a bid you cannot staff.

A good team decides more than once. A first read at the sources sought or draft RFP stage decides whether to invest in capture; a second, firmer decision comes when the final RFP is out and the requirements are known; and an amendment that changes scope or dates can reopen it.

The common mistake is deciding by enthusiasm. A written scorecard with a recorded rationale lets the team see why it bid, compare the score with the outcome later, and say no without an argument when the numbers do not support a bid.

For state and local bids the same logic applies, with a few extra gates: vendor registration in that state or city, local preference rules, bonding and insurance requirements, and sometimes a mandatory pre-bid conference that must be attended to be eligible. Write these gates into the checklist so they are checked on every bid, not remembered by one person. Whatever the market, the decision should be made by someone who owns the people and money the proposal will consume, and the reasons should be kept with the pursuit so the next similar bid starts from evidence instead of memory.